Transient Uncertainty Analysis in Solar Thermal System Modeling

Complex, dynamic, computational models are routinely used to evaluate and optimize the design and performance of solar thermal systems. As models become more complex, performing uncertainty analysis on such models can be quite challenging and computationally expensive. This paper presents an effective approach to quantify uncertainties associated with transient simulation results from a dynamic solar thermal energy system model with uncertain parameters. The proposed method utilizes the concept of impulse response and convolution process to estimate the sensitivities to time-varying external inputs. Using this method, the number of simulations required to propagate uncertainties through dynamic models can be significantly reduced. An example is presented throughout the paper to demonstrate the procedure of the proposed uncertainty analysis approach.